OMAHA (DTN) -- Farmers have four weeks left to make their decisions about whether to enroll their base acres in Agricultural Risk Coverage-County or Price Loss Coverage (ARC or PLC) for the 2026 crop year.
The decision comes under unique circumstances. Farmers are making their elections for commodities based on crops already harvested, and they can gauge how much they think the market is going to move during the rest of the marketing year.
ARC/PLC enrollment continues through Dec. 11. Farmers can change their elections and enroll in ARC-County (ARC-CO), PLC or ARC-Individual (ARC--IC), which provides protection based on all of the commodities on the farm.
MARKET YEAR AVERAGE PRICE PROJECTIONS
USDA on Tuesday projected the expected 2026-27 average market-year price for corn at $4.60 a bushel, down ten cents a bushel from October. Soybeans were projected at $12.10 a bushel, up ten cents from last month. Wheat was projected at $6.20 a bushel, down ten cents.
Other agricultural economists are projecting some different price scenarios. An estimate by Kansas State's Department of Agricultural Economics is a little more bearish. K-State projected the marketing-year corn price at $4.44 a bushel and soybeans at $11.92 a bushel. K-State also projects the average marketing-year wheat price at $5.93 a bushel.
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) had a baseline forecast for corn at $4.57 a bushel with soybeans at $11.66 a bushel and wheat at $6.25 a bushel.
PLC EFFECTIVE PRICES
Tying those in, the effective reference prices that determine PLC payment triggers are:
Corn: $4.42 a bushel
Soybeans: $10.71 a bushel
Wheat: $6.35 a bushel
Comparing those reference prices with the marketing-year forecasts suggests wheat has the strongest prospects for a PLC payment. Corn could potentially trigger a small payment if prices decline, while a soybean payment appears less likely.
The University of Illinois farmdoc calculator estimates a 29% likelihood of a PLC corn payment and a 14% likelihood of a soybean payment. With wheat, the calculator projects a 53% likelihood of a payment.
ARC-COUNTY
Land-grant university decision tools can be especially valuable for evaluating ARC-County because payment prospects vary greatly by county. Along with farmdoc, Kansas State and Texas A&M also have decision tools for producers. (See below)
USDA calculates the county benchmark yield and benchmark price for ARC-County using a five-year Olympic average -- dropping high and low years, and the other three years are averaged. The benchmark yield and price are multiplied to create the benchmark revenue. That's then multiplied by 90% to create the revenue guarantee.
ARC-County payments are triggered when actual county revenue falls below that guarantee.
The payment cap is 12% of the benchmark revenue.
Like PLC, the ARC-County payments are also made on 85% of base acres.
SOME SCENARIOS
Using the farmdoc calculator, here are some probability-weighted averages looking at different counties in select states. These are possible scenarios and don't guarantee that payments would be triggered.
A central Illinois county with a corn benchmark yield of 211 bushels per acre has a 54% likelihood of an ARC-County payment of $44.98 an acre. The county has a 29% likelihood of a PLC payment of $19.49 an acre.
For soybeans in the same county, ARC-County has a 15% probability of a $5.81 per acre payment. The county has a 14% probability of a PLC payment of $4.11 per acre.
In Iowa, a south-central county with a corn benchmark yield of 187 bpa has a 38% probability of an expected ARC-County payment of $24.85 an acre. The same county has a 29% likelihood of a PLC payment of $17.27 an acre.
For soybeans, the county has a 17% likelihood in ARC-County at $4.58 per acre. On PLC, there is a 14% likelihood of a payment for $3.52 an acre.
In Kansas, a northeastern county with a corn benchmark yield of 154 bpa has a 40% likelihood of an ARC-County payment of $24.25 an acre. The county has a 29% likelihood of a PLC payment of $14.19 an acre.
For soybeans, the county has a 52 bpa and a 49% likelihood of an ARC-County payment of $20.86 an acre. With PLC, the likelihood of a payment is 14% at an expected payment of $3.28 an acre.
For wheat, the county has a benchmark yield of 46 bpa with an 81% likelihood that the county would receive an ARC-County payment at $38.27 an acre. Under PLC, it's a 53% likelihood of an expected payment of $10.75 an acre.
A southeastern North Dakota county with a corn benchmark yield of 157 bpa has a 77% probability of an ARC-County payment of $51.22 an acre. For PLC, it's a 29% likelihood of a payment of $14.54 an acre.
For soybeans, that same county has a 68% probability of an ARC-County payment of $25.72 an acre, but a 14% likelihood of a PLC soybean payment of $2.57 an acre.
For wheat, the county has a 58 bpa and a 71% likelihood of an ARC-County payment of $21.56 an acre. For PLC, it's a 53% likelihood of a $13.77 per-acre payment.
The comparisons show how ARC-County can offer different payment prospects based on local yields, while PLC payment probabilities are the same nationally, but still vary.
CONSIDERING ARC-IC
Farmdoc also examined Agricultural Risk Coverage-Individual Coverage (ARC-IC) this week as well. ARC-IC covers all of the commodities together on a farm and is only used by a small percentage of farms.
Unlike ARC-County and PLC, which pay on 85% of base acres, ARC-IC payments are made on just 65% of base acres. That difference can make ARC-IC less attractive unless a farm has circumstances that favor individual revenue protection.
Still, there might be some reasons that ARC-IC could be a better fit for producers. Farmdoc notes farmers who took prevented planting or had a poor year due to a localized loss could receive an ARC-IC payment even though they might not qualify for an ARC-County payment. Farmers with yields higher than the county average might also find ARC-IC valuable.
In its September announcement, USDA cautioned farmers to ensure they complete their 2026 elections by Dec. 11. Regardless of whether a farmer elects to keep or change their program, they must make an election for the crop years, or the farm is ineligible for payments for the 2026 program year.
Farmers also have the option to enroll their farms in multi-year contracts for 2026 through 2031 as well.
Keep in mind landowners cannot enroll in either program unless they have a share interest in the farm.
Producers can sign up for ARC and PLC at their local Farm Service Agency (FSA) service center or apply online through farmers.gov using a verified account.
LOOKING AHEAD
Producers can also enroll for their 2027 crops from now through March 15, 2027. The advice on the 2027 crop is that farmers may want to wait until they see what the futures and crop-insurance prices look like before locking in the 2027 program.
Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture will also have a free webinar on Monday, Nov. 16, at 7 p.m. EST on the pros and cons of the ARC/PLC options for 2026. To register, go to https://purdue.ca1.qualtrics.com/…
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