DTN Closing Cotton            10/21 13:44

   Cotton Climbs a "Rung" Higher

   Cotton edges higher as traders watch exports, funds, rates, market clues.


Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market appears to be slowly inching up and away from its early 
October lows. Of late, speculative managed-traders have halted their net-long 
liquidations, while others are thinking that the 2026 Harvest low could emerge 
as early as "now".  Of course, the market will also assess Thursday's exports 
and Friday's CFTC update for additional clues. 

   At 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday, the USDA will issue its weekly exports-sales 
report. Highlights from last week's data saw combined seasonal net sales of 
154,074 bales, which was below the 221,128 bales of last week. Cumulative sales 
for 2026/2027 have reached 45% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 
54% for this point in the marketing year.

   Then on Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of 
Traders report (COT) numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds net bought 
1,862 positions increasing their net-long carry to 65,699 contracts.

   The EIA report Wednesday was bullish for crude and gasoline, which both saw 
larger than expected draws last week, but was somewhat bearish for diesel, with 
distillate stocks showing an increase versus an expected decline. Refinery 
activity was close to expectations. U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks 
are all running below year ago and five-year average levels. U.S. crude oil 
output is down sharply this month.

   Next week the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss and perhaps act on U.S. 
interest rates. Recent inflationary data has been running high, and the central 
bank may feel compelled to increase rates. That potential decision will be 
announced today week.

   For Wednesday, December closed at 81.83 cents, up 95 points, March 2027 
finished at 85.20 cents, plus 102 points, and July 2027 settled at 87.26 cents, 
94 points higher. Wednesday's estimated volume was 57,445 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at [email protected]




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