DTN Closing Cotton            10/13 13:37

   Cotton Holds in Tight Range as Traders Weigh USDA Data

   The cotton market experienced another tight-ranged session on muted volume 
as traders await other price-moving influences. 


Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market experienced another tight-ranged session on muted volume 
as traders await other price-moving influences. Traders are dealing with 
bearish numbers recently issued by USDA and the possibility that a seasonal low 
has been set.

   This afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will issue its weekly Crop Progress 
report. Last week saw the national crop rated 33% good to excellent, while the 
harvest pace was 21%.

   Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, new CPI (consumer inflation) numbers will be 
issued. Traders are expecting U.S. inflation to rise in Wednesday's CPI report, 
mainly because of higher energy prices, while underlying inflation should 
remain more moderate. Headline inflation year-over-year is looking between 3.6% 
to 3.7%. The previous reading was 3.4%.

   Thursday, new PPI (wholesale inflation) numbers will be released. Its 
numbers are expected to be elevated. Headline monthly PPI is estimated at 0.5% 
versus the previous 0.4%.

   Weekly export sales will be released this Friday. Highlights from last 
week's report included net combined seasonal sales of 221,128 bales. That 
amount was below the previous 241,727 bales, but was higher than the four-week 
average. Cumulative sales for 2027/28 have reached 44% of the USDA forecast 
versus a five-year average of 53% for this point in the marketing year. 
Shipments totaled 161,588 bales, up from 149,507 bales the previous week.

   The U.S. dollar was lower Tuesday, falling away from its 18-month high, as 
WTI crude was sharply higher. Traders are fearful that higher energies will 
nudge inflation higher and cause the Federal Reserve to raise rates.

   For Tuesday, December closed at 80.51 cents, down 9 points; March 2027 
finished at 83.83 cents, plus 2 points; and July 2027 settled at 85.92 cents, 1 
point lower. Tuesday's estimated volume was 45,381 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at [email protected]




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